There’s universal agreement that the youth vote is critical to the outcome of the 2008 election, but how engaged are Millennials? Engagement is a tricky thing to measure, but just released data from Pew Research sheds some light. First, the table shows a strong trend among 18-24 year olds for going ‘newsless’; 34% say they watch no news on a daily basis, up from 25% in 1998. (Presumably news on the Comedy Channel doesn’t count as ‘news’, although I’m not sure.) While over 9 out of 10 18-29 year olds say they intend to vote, only 7 out of 10 say they ‘definitely plan to vote’ and less than two thirds say they voted in their precinct last time they had a chance, and only 4 out of 10 say they ‘always’ vote. These figures are even lower for ‘cell phone only’ respondents.
Given these figures, it’s clear why the candidates are focusing on social media to engage young voters. Obama is doing far better than McCain, but the gap is closing. According to Hitwise, Obama gets about 56% of the total candidate web site traffic. As of Sept. 9, Obama boasted 510,799 MySpace friends, compared with McCain’s 87,652 friends, a more than 5-to-1 lead in number of friends, but down from a 7-to-1 advantage in August according to Live Research. Obama also has a sizeable leads on Facebook with 1,726,453 supporters to McCain’s 309,591. Obama’s Web site has twice as many videos posted to his official YouTube channel and far more YouTube channel subscribers, by an 11-to-1 margin. But what is surprising to me, is that these figures aren’t higher, given the penetration of these media among young people.
The Stanford Daily, in an article yesterday titled “Just How Political Is This Place?”, quotes Evan Purcell as saying “it’s difficult to stay informed; politics isn’t a big social presence here.” My daughter at Notre Dame reported the same lack of interest when I asked how students were responding to the Palin pick. “Mom, we’re in a bubble.” While I am sure some campuses, like George Washington University in DC, are more passionate about politics, neither candidate should overestimate the ‘engagement’ of today’s young voters in the election — at least for now.
