Now that we are finally done hearing reviews of the top TEN younameits, we are enduring endless top TEN predictions for 2009. Given the statistics, wouldn’t it be great to go into this year with some clue as to what might happen? There seem to be two approaches to seeing into the future. One is to tap ‘experts’. However, expert predictions are notoriously unreliable, as this video from 1930 speculating on fashions of the year 2000 reminds us. (It’s interesting to note, however, that many of these predictions are not that far off the mark — men do carry a lot of gadgets and women’s 2009 fashions do feature the ‘transparent’ look).
The other approach to future-sight is to observe what ‘trendsetters’ are doing. After all, every trend has to start somewhere. Something those who prize ‘newness’ for newness’ sake is likely to go mainstream. Of course, there are pitfalls here as well. Who exactly is a trendsetter? And which of their quirky choices will cross over to the rest of us?
According to Outlaw Consulting, there are two ways to approach trendsettter research. One is to identify “attitudinal leaders”, individuals with ‘broadly aspirational lifestyles’. Often these individuals can articulate the shifting values of their generation and provide ideas about larger societal trends. The other way is to seek out “category leaders”, individuals who are highly involved and ahead in one particular category, such as fashion, media, music, night life or alcohol. Within each category, there are degrees of ‘forwardness’ from cutting edge ‘initiators’ to slightly less forward ‘influencers’. While a cutting-edge fashion initiator makes her own music and clothes, and reads underground blogs created by his friends, the influencer, may be just one step ahead of the mainstream buying the latest styles in the mall, only to be copied by all of her friends.
Knowing what trendsetters are doing is only the first step. The second step is determining which of their choices, tastes and interests will go mainstream. This requires research among early adopters or even late adopters, with a keen ear for ‘underlying motives’ that may lead these mainstream consumers to adopt the more forward trend. Here is how Barbara Bylenga at Outlaw Consulting describes it:
The key to accurate prediction is understanding the mainstream’s barriers: do they reject the trend because of a soft barrier that could weaken over time? (Soft barrier example: “I don’t like to spend a lot on things like that.”) Or is the barrier deeply ingrained in their identity, suggesting they will never absorb the trend? (Hard barrier example: “Nobody will respect me if I do that.”) … The process works because it’s thorough and intelligent, rooted in essential truths about human behavior.
Perhaps the 1930’s fashion experts were on to something after all. If human motivations remain constant, transparent women’s fashions and dedicated pockets for men’s gadgets may still be with us in 2050.
